============================================= AUTO ============================================= MIGRATION RATE AND POPULATION SIZE ESTIMATION using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation ============================================= Version 2.1.2 Program started at Mon Jan 23 16:33:43 2006 finished at Mon Jan 23 16:35:01 2006 Options in use: --------------- Datatype: Microsatellite data [Stepwise mutation] Missing data is not included Pseudo-random number generator: Least Congruental Generator Random number seed (with internal timer) 1138052023 Start parameters: Theta values were generated from the FST-calculation M values were generated from the FST-calculation Migration model: Migration matrix model with variable Theta Mutation rate is constant for all loci Analysis strategy is Bayesian Prior distribution used: Parameter group Prior type Minimum Mean(*) Maximum Delta ---------------------- ------------ ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- Population size (Theta) Exponential 0.000000 1.000000 10.000000 - Migration rate (M) Exponential 0.000000 10.000000 1000.00000 - Markov chain settings: Long chains (long-chains): 1 Steps sampled (inc*samples*rep): 6400 Steps recorded (sample*rep): 3200 Combining over replicates: 2 Number of discard trees per chain: 130 Print options: Data file: infile.msat Output file (ASCII text): outfile-bayes Output file (PDF): outfile-bayes.pdf Posterior distribution: bayesfile Print data: No Print genealogies: No Plot data: No Profile likelihood: Yes, tables and summary Percentile method with df=1 and for Theta and M=m/mu Summary of data: --------------- Datatype: Microsatellite data Number of loci: 10 Population Locus Gene copies data (missing) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1 population__number___0 1 50 (0) 2 50 (0) 3 50 (0) 4 50 (0) 5 50 (0) 6 50 (0) 7 50 (0) 8 50 (0) 9 50 (0) 10 50 (0) 2 population__number___1 1 42 (0) 2 42 (0) 3 42 (0) 4 42 (0) 5 42 (0) 6 42 (0) 7 42 (0) 8 42 (0) 9 42 (0) 10 42 (0) Total of all populations 1 92 (0) 2 92 (0) 3 92 (0) 4 92 (0) 5 92 (0) 6 92 (0) 7 92 (0) 8 92 (0) 9 92 (0) 10 92 (0) Bayesian estimates ================== Locus Parameter 2.5% 25.0% mode 75.0% 97.5% median mean ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Theta_1 0.22500 0.27500 0.32500 0.37500 0.42500 0.37500 0.37734 1 Theta_2 0.32500 0.32500 0.47500 0.47500 0.57500 0.52500 0.47141 1 M_2->1 7.50 7.50 12.50 12.50 17.50 17.50 14.28 1 M_1->2 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 17.50 12.50 11.16 2 Theta_1 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.07500 0.42500 0.27500 0.20058 2 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.37500 0.24962 2 M_2->1 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 46.30 2 M_1->2 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 44.74 3 Theta_1 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.17500 0.42500 0.22500 0.19276 3 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.22500 0.52500 0.27500 0.23618 3 M_2->1 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 37.50 41.96 3 M_1->2 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 37.50 40.90 4 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.22500 0.42500 0.22500 0.19783 4 Theta_2 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.22500 0.52500 0.22500 0.22660 4 M_2->1 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 32.50 37.70 4 M_1->2 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 37.50 38.89 5 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.12500 0.22500 0.42500 0.22500 0.21314 5 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.12500 0.17500 0.47500 0.22500 0.20197 5 M_2->1 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 27.50 32.23 5 M_1->2 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 37.50 37.33 6 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.27500 0.42500 0.27500 0.22678 6 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.12500 0.17500 0.47500 0.22500 0.19665 6 M_2->1 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 27.50 31.00 6 M_1->2 72.50 72.50 77.50 77.50 77.50 37.50 37.02 7 Theta_1 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.42500 0.22500 0.19526 7 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.12500 0.47500 0.17500 0.17075 7 M_2->1 307.50 307.50 312.50 312.50 312.50 32.50 71.39 7 M_1->2 307.50 307.50 312.50 312.50 312.50 42.50 76.55 8 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.22500 0.37500 0.22500 0.19510 8 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.07500 0.12500 0.47500 0.17500 0.17199 8 M_2->1 307.50 307.50 312.50 312.50 312.50 32.50 66.33 8 M_1->2 307.50 307.50 312.50 312.50 312.50 42.50 71.68 9 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.22500 0.47500 0.27500 0.22594 9 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.12500 0.17500 0.47500 0.22500 0.19661 9 M_2->1 2.50 7.50 17.50 27.50 47.50 32.50 60.83 9 M_1->2 307.50 307.50 312.50 312.50 312.50 37.50 66.08 10 Theta_1 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.22500 0.47500 0.22500 0.21874 10 Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.07500 0.17500 0.47500 0.22500 0.18482 10 M_2->1 2.50 2.50 12.50 22.50 42.50 27.50 55.44 10 M_1->2 2.50 12.50 22.50 32.50 52.50 37.50 60.93 All Theta_1 0.08125 0.24375 0.35208 0.35208 0.40625 0.35208 0.28381 All Theta_2 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.02500 0.17500 0.07500 0.02501 All M_2->1 2.50 2.50 12.50 12.50 27.50 17.50 12.26 All M_1->2 2.50 2.50 7.50 12.50 27.50 17.50 11.28 Acceptance ratios for all parameters and the genealogies --------------------------------------------------------------------- Parameter Accepted changes Ratio Theta_1 585/8279 0.07066 Theta_2 585/8288 0.07058 M_2->1 1019/8386 0.12151 M_1->2 798/8349 0.09558 Genealogies 3441/32020 0.10746